"Let's not be surprised if this thing turns on a dime," Tocqueville's John Hathaway tells King World News
We will see gold ignite in the second half of this year if not sooner. The bigger picture is that we are at crunch time for this notion that QE is benign and that the Fed and other central banks will be able to tweak it so expertly. The whole idea of tapering makes me laugh because all it means is that the rate of increase will slow somewhat, which I think is also a myth.But I firmly believe we are reaching the point at which this notion that the central banks have everything under control, that the economies of the world are on the mend, and that the bond market will tolerate the withdrawal of liquidity in a very sanguine way, I think all of this is going to be severely challenged as we go into the second half of this year. I believe it will boil down to a loss of confidence in the policies which have been in place since the credit meltdown of 2008. ...
It could be a grind in gold for a bit more time as rallies will be met with (paper) supply from people who still want to get out. That's one scenario. I suppose for those of us who are committed to this view and to this strategy, I would be prepared for a grind.
But on the other hand, let's not be surprised if this thing turns on a dime. That's why when I read all of this technical stuff I firmly believe that it's a big mistake to make investment decisions based on that. Trying to market time an event which is 'transformational' in the capital markets, and almost inherently unpredictable on a timing basis, means to me that technical analysis is really not the way to view things. ...
The bottom line, and my message, is that investors have to be positioned, despite the pain, in order to capture the repricing of gold, which could be very, very sudden. And I'm not talking about $100. I'm talking about another $1,000 on the upside.
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