The only thing that changed over the past 60 days was the price of gold, and perhaps the mainstream's perception of our industry. The realities of the fiscal and monetary state of the world, however, did not.
What has struck our industry was not the consequence of a shift in fundamentals, but rather a number of transient factors, including: (i) growing belief in the general investment community that inflation will not result from global money-printing efforts; (ii) claims the global economy is improving; (iii) Europeans fleeing their economic troubles buying US dollars (which makes the dollar look strong and hence gold less appealing to some); and (iv) a very large gold sale that caused the gold price to breach "technical support levels" and trigger a cascade of further selling. All of this -- and a lot of commentary based more on opinion than fact -- has led to the misguided conclusion that gold is a has-been asset. ...
Today's ongoing economic and fiscal crises cannot end smoothly or without unpleasant consequences. Since none of the excesses that precipitated the 2008 financial crisis have been fixed, another round of crisis is baked in the cake and will likely inflict even greater damage. When that happens, gold will again be seen as the refuge it is, regardless of current popular opinion.
We're not alone in this thinking. As you've undoubtedly read, in response to the crash, global demand for physical metal soared at both the retail and wholesale levels. This reaction is extremely important: we can't identify a single crash, collapse, or crisis that ended with retail investors stampeding to buy the asset that had just been crushed. Not one. In our view, the gold story is not over. Far from it. The reasons for owning it are just as important now as they've ever been since the bull market started in 2001. I can't be sure the price is done falling -- but I'm sure it's not done climbing.
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