Tuesday, January 29, 2013

"The Fed will maintain a steady foot on the gas pedal"

 "The Federal Reserve is going to maintain its monetary policy of aggressive easing at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday, and will keep it in place until there are signs of a broad-based expansion, economists said," according to MarketWatch. 

"The Fed will maintain a steady foot on the gas pedal," said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas. 

"For now, [Fed officials] are still not comfortable stepping back," said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust in Chicago. 

According to a CNBC poll: Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to remain highly aggressive throughout 2013 but is divided over when quantitative easing will end and how it will be stopped, according to the January CNBC Fed Survey.

The 52 respondents -- including economists, strategists and money managers -- see the Fed on average purchasing $859 billion of assets this year for an average of $71 billion per month.

That is slightly below the $85 billion the Fed has already announced for January, in part because about 57 percent of market participants do not expect the Fed's purchases to remain at the January level for the entire year. ...

The downside: 44 percent believe QE will cause inflation, up from 35 percent in the December survey. Thirty-six percent believe it won't cause inflation, down from 46 percent. 

Meanwhile, a Bloomberg poll finds: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's latest round of bond buying will reach $1.14 trillion before he ends the program in the first quarter of 2014, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Bernanke will push on with purchases of $40 billion a month of mortgage bonds and $45 billion a month of Treasuries, according to the survey of 44 economists, even as some Fed officials warn his unprecedented balance-sheet expansion will impair efforts to tighten policy when necessary. 

"To get to the point where Bernanke would be comfortable letting up, you have to have a good solid string of economic reports that you're just not going to get" this year, said Eric Green, global head of rates and FX research at TD Securities Inc. in New York and a former New York Fed economist. 

And two key recent reports suggest that the economy is indeed still facing significant hurdles. Zerohedge reported: The conference board printed at the worst level in 13 months -- so all those 2012 gains are gone -- and fell month-over-month by the most since the August 2011 fiscal cliff debacle. For every income levels (except those earning under $15k) confidence plunged with the $35k-$50k bracket crashing the most. It would appear that the driver of 70% of the US economy is not buying the new normal being fed to us daily by any and every media outlet possible. 

Meanwhile, on the real-estate front: The Case-Shiller Home Price Index's unadjusted data "showed that in November, the 20 City Composite index posted its second consecutive monthly price decline in a row. Yes: on a year-over-year basis home prices did rise some 5.5%, but on the other hand, 'average home prices across the United States are back to their autumn 2003 levels for both the 10-City and 20-City Composites. And while the price decline into the year end is somewhat seasonal, it certainly does not fit with all the other economic data released by the government showing a housing picture so bright not even the tiniest drops in prices were allowed. 

So what to expect from the Fed on Wednesday? Chairman Ben Bernanke likely will pinpoint some bright spots in the U.S. economy, but the situation remains too precarious to take away the Fed's quantitative-easing life support anytime soon. And that would be good news for gold prices.


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