Gold's "upside is well beyond $2,000," CEF Holdings chief tells CNBC

 "I'm a long-term gold bull," CEF Holdings chief Warren Gilman tells CNBC in an Oct. 30 appearance with guest host and U.S. Global Investors head Frank Holmes.

"And frankly I don't see too many headwinds in the long term stopping gold from going well through $2,000 and going far beyond that, frankly. I do have a bit of a short-term issue with gold. I think the charts are looking a little bit underwhelming at the moment, and I think that support level around $1,700 could be breached. And this would give me a buying opportunity back in the $1,600s, which is what I'm looking for. I'm always looking for opportunities to buy on the dips, as they say. ... The upside is well beyond $2,000."

Holmes then goes on to discuss gold's seasonal price patterns, explaining that October's price dip was expected and that prices should rise going into major gold-buying holidays in India (Diwali), the Western world (Christmas), and China (New Year).

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Low Asian demand presents golden buying opportunities for Gold

 Physical demand for gold from Asian consumers may be showing some modest signs of stabilization but the buying interest so common at this time of year during religious festivals and the wedding season still won't be strong enough to lift prices above $1,800 an ounce, strategists said.

India and China are collectively the world's largest gold buyers, contributing 45 percent of total global consumption in the second-quarter of 2012, but the global economic slowdown has hit sales and undermined the stimulus-driven rally in bullion prices. Gold jumped to an 11-month high above $1,795 in October after the Fed's stimulus plan but retreated after failing to break $1,800. It is down more than 3 percent for the month. ...

Robin Bhar, the head of metals research at Societe Generale, is less pessimistic about the outlook for Asian demand. He noted in a Tuesday report that the recent drop in gold prices reflected weaker investor appetite but the resulting softer prices were attracting bargain-hunters in the physical market.

"The balance of interest may be shifting in the short term, away from professional investors who have been active in Q3 (and helping to drive the price higher), while their retreat, and associated price fall, is now starting to entice fresh physical interest," Bhar wrote. Outside India and China, and elsewhere in Asia, "physical demand remains keenly attuned to price movements, but there are signs now of some bargain hunting on any approach to $1,700." ...

Tactically, many strategists recommend accumulating gold on any pullbacks below $1,700. Though still a long-term gold bull, Warren Gilman, CEO of CEF Holdings in Hong Kong, said he's looking to buy on the dips. "I believe gold will not hold $1,700 and I will be able to enter again close to $1,600." ...

Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of money manager U.S. Global Investors, said he would buy more bullion on any decline to $1,650.

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

As the Fed's balance sheet grows, Gold could hit $3,150

 From experience, we know that when the Fed increases its balance sheet during these programs, the US gold price increases very closely with it. If the balance sheet increases 20%, the gold price also increases around 20% too according to Dr Alex Cowle.

In fact if you statistically calculate the relationship between them, says Dr Cowle the correlation is around 95%, which is about as certain as anything gets in finance.

If this relationship holds true, you can plug in the projected numbers for the Fed's balance sheet over the next few years -- to make a pretty fair forecast of where gold will go next.

Assuming the Fed keeps adding $40 billion a month for two years, Bank of America has already projected a gold price target of US$2400 per ounce in two years time. That's a 40% gain from today's price. ...

After getting a bit ahead of itself in September on the initial excitement, gold has cooled from nearly $1800 to closer to $1700 during October.

Looking at the chart today, I suspect that we're now looking at a good entry to the start of a long steady rally. This could make the coming weeks one of the best opportunities to buy gold -- and also gold stocks.

It's a good proposition as it stands, but already it looks as though the Fed could be about to turn the heat up. It looks like the Fed will now INCREASE its asset purchases from December.

Goldman Sach's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, reckons the Fed will step up its purchases from $40 billion a month -- to $85 billion a month. ...

So if Goldman Sachs is right, and it normally is when it is talking about the Fed, the result could be a more than doubling of the already rapid pace of gold price appreciation.

IF this happens, then I calculate we could see $US gold in the region of $3150 / ounce in just over two years. That would be an 85% increase from today's price!

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

McAlvany Wealth Management: "Heavy emphasis on the metals to us is essential"

 I think where we do see a void is in monetary alternatives. The Fed is mismanaging our currency and the [European Central Bank] is not exactly a stable alternative in terms of the euro. So for individuals -- and we're seeing a growing trend with central banks -- it has defined a monetary alternative to the dollar. And to some degree we're seeing that move in the direction of gold says CEO David McAlvany tells Hard Asset Investor.

We continue to see central bank purchases on the rise, and nonofficial purchases from the Chinese. Our contacts in Hong Kong, expect between 30 and 40 tons per month coming through Hong Kong for central bank purchases. So that's to us a compelling case for a move higher in gold over the intermediate and long term. And for the average investor, that does mean that silver is going to come along for the ride. It tends to follow along in fits and starts, much more speculative in that regard, but probably the better value between the two for the individual investor. 

Hard Assets Investor: So as a wealth manager -- which is your business -- gold is your No. 1 area right now that you would be putting a client's assets into?

McAlvany: I think we're still in that strange place of sitting on the fence between a healthy cash position -- a very neglected asset class in my opinion -- and a healthy metals position, which would be allocated partially to gold and partially to silver, with the expectation that silver's probably the outperformer over, say, an 18- to 24-month period. So, not a short term trade, so to say.

But that ratio of gold to silver, 53-to-1, has come down from close to 60 earlier in the year. And for it to settle into the 40's would be normal, outperforming gold on the way.

Hard Assets Investor: If your view is that people are going to continue to move into gold for safety, for protection, or on the belief that central banks are going to have to continue what they're doing, and somehow that's going to debase or devalue the currencies, why not just go all into gold then?

McAlvany: Well, I think there is still the issue of deflationary snaps affecting individual asset classes. That could be asset-backed, mortgage-backed, commercial mortgage-backed securities -- pockets of vulnerability still there. Keep in mind we went over the last 30 years from $5 trillion in liabilities to a system that has $54 trillion in credit growth or liability.
So this is where we do see at some point there will be a step back. We don't know when, or to what degree or even what asset classes are involved in maintaining a cash balance we think is prudent. But certainly a healthy, a heavy emphasis on the metals to us is essential. You hit the nail on the head. It's not necessarily the growth process, but it is as an inflation or deflation hedge. It always has been an insurance component. And that's where it should be identified as an insurance component. A monetary alternative would be the other way of looking at it.

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Gold "more likely" to top $2,000 next year, Sprott manager predicts

 I expect precious metals prices to rise significantly over the next decade. A large part of it as a result of QE and other money printing programs. The U.S. did announce QE3 recently. Having said that, it hasn't started running up the printing press. A good rise in precious metals is yet to come, says Charles Oliver, Sprott manager.

I definitely believe the election is impacting it. The election could delay the implementation of QE3 because the Federal Reserve doesn't want to do any tampering that would be seen as influencing the election. I believe that QE3 will take place after the election this fall or early next year -- and I expect to see significant programs embarked upon.

In terms of the gold price, I have forecast that it would hit $2,000 this year. There's still a very good chance of that, but it's more likely that it will go through $2,000 next year. Some of the trend lines on the chart indicate a $2,200 gold price sometime next year.

Gold may outperform other commodities as the bull run in raw materials pauses amid slowing economies, while grains and oilseeds may jump on weather disruptions, according to participants at the World Commodities Week conference.

Commodities will likely lack direction for the next 12 months, meaning investors will focus more on relative-value trades, according to Tiberius Asset Management AG. Deutsche Bank AG favors precious metals and is neutral on oil and industrial metals, Michael Lewis, head of commodities research at the bank, said today at the conference in London. Bullion isn't in a "bubble" at current prices, he said. ...

Gold won't become a bubble unless prices rise to a record above $2,200 an ounce, while oil and industrial metals are vulnerable to risks associated with the so-called fiscal cliff in the U.S., said Lewis of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank.

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Germany knows: If you don't hold your gold, you don't own it

Germany withdrew two thirds of its vast holdings of gold from Bank of England vaults shortly after the launch of the euro more than a decade ago, according to a confidential report by German auditors. 

The revelation came as Germany's budget watchdog demanded an on-site probe of the country's remaining gold reserves in London, Paris, and New York to verify whether the metal really exists. 

The country has 3,396 tons of gold worth 143 billion euros, the world's second-largest holding after the US. Nearly all of it was shifted to vaults abroad during the Cold War in case of a Soviet attack. 

Roughly 66% is held at the New York Federal Reserve, 21% at the Bank of England, and 8% at the Bank of France. The German Court of Auditors told legislators in a redacted report that the gold had "never been verified physically" and ordered the Bundesbank to secure access to the storage sites. 

It called for repatriation of 150 tons over the next three years to test the quality and weight of the gold bars. It said Frankfurt has no register of numbered gold bars. 

The report also claimed that the Bundesbank had slashed its holdings in London from 1,440 tons to 500 tons in 2000 and 2001, allegedly because storage costs were too high. The metal was flown to Frankfurt by air freight. 

The revelation has baffled gold veterans. The shift came as the euro was at its weakest, slumping to $0.84 against the dollar. But it also came as the Bank of England was selling off most of Britain's gold reserves -- at market lows -- on orders from Gordon Brown. 

Peter Hambro, chair of the UK-listed gold miner Petropavlovsk, said the Bundesbank may have withdrawn its bullion in self-protection since it did not, apparently, have its own specifically allocated bars in London. "They may have decided that the Bank of England had lent out too much gold, and decided it was safer to bring theirs home. This is about the identification. Can you identify your own allocated gold, or are you just a general creditor with a metal account?"

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Standard Bank, UBS bullish on Gold Bullion

After eight weeks of consecutive increases, gold's net speculative length fell last week. A decline, Standard Bank attributes to "Investor uncertainty over the ability of QE3 to support prices and/or the longevity of Fed's open-ended commitment to easing."

Indeed, the bank wrote in yesterday's daily commodities note that this uncertainty is "weighing on gold", adding that it expects this week's data from the CFTC to show further weakening, although, it cautioned, "we should see some stability as the gold price moves towards $1,700."

While the bank believes that the $1,700 level should hold, it says there is likely to be resistance to higher prices between $1,741 and $1,756.

"We were not keen buyers of gold at $1,780; however, we would be at $1,700. At $1,780, we estimated that gold was pricing in too much QE already, even when compared to its behaviour during previous rounds of easing by the Fed. Should gold drop to $1,700, it would likely reflect only two months of QE from the Fed - a level we deem reasonable," the bank writes in a commodities strategy note out on Friday.

But, it adds, "the fact that the gold physical market in Asia has improved markedly from three weeks ago provides us with some comfort that there could be better support for gold going forward." 

It does not believe that the physical market will push prices higher, in fact, buying interest remains historically weak for this time of year but, it says, prices closer to the $1,700 level might entice "much greater buying from the physical market."

In its latest daily commodities note, UBS's Edel Tully writes that within the gold market, nervousness and fatigue among investors is understandable "especially after gold's tamer-than-expected response to QE3 and the generally weak price action after a poor attempt to reach the key $1800 mark in early October."

Gold's performance of late, UBS writes has been a function of it having to compete with other assets for funds post QE3. Indeed, it writes, "It makes perfect sense that gold would outperform other risk assets in anticipation of QE, but underperform during the aftermath. ... On the surface, a global economic recovery would offer downside risks for gold prices inasmuch as the potential for policy normalisation starts creeping into market expectations."

But, while both UBS and Standard Bank are not surprised that gold has been performing poorly this month, neither is bearish on the metal.

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Central banks continue to drive gold prices higher, World Gold Council says

While the WGC says inflation risks are still the strongest fundamental on gold prices, central bank policy and gold purchases are a growing force on price direction.

In the World Gold Council's just-released quarterly Investment Statistics Commentary for the third quarter, the nonprofit association of the world's leading gold mining companies clearly shifts the focus of what's moving the yellow metal's price more and more toward central banks.

For the WGC, the various ways central banks are employing "unconventional monetary policies" are playing a bigger and bigger role in affecting the price of gold. ...

From a global gold investor's perspective, most of the big news came from central banks hinting at or announcing plans to extend or expand their "unconventional monetary policy" (which the WGC uses to mean pretty much anything other than interest-rate manipulation).

Since policy meetings weren't scheduled until the later half of the third quarter, many investors held off making decisions until after they could read the defense, so to speak, seeing what the central banks were actually going to do. At the same time, data available on central bank purchases shows that many countries continue to add to their gold reserves. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

"We have a positive view around Gold Bullion," says top Goldman Sachs exec

When we look at gold, we don't have in mind a specific supply/demand balance going forward. It's easy enough to see the supply side. In trying to forecast a price for gold, we tend to run out a 4% per annum contango from the current gold price until we think U.S. interest rate policy will reverse and rates will start to climb. That stage just keeps on moving out -- as it has with Quantitative Easing (QE) 3.

We look at the gold price to forecast earnings, and over the next 6 to 12 months, we'd expect $1,650 at the lower end and, if it breaks through, $1,850-1,900 at the upper end. If accommodative fiscal policies continue globally, it could go significantly higher. But bear in mind that as equity analysts we're trying to forecast earnings, and to do so we want to be as close as possible to where the gold price will be for the next three to six months, even if the range is quite broad. ...

It doesn't do our investors any good if we use a $2,000 gold price for the next six months and it ends up averaging $1,780. It's more meaningful to say we have a positive view around gold. And we do. Considering such accommodative fiscal regimes, very low interest rates globally and central banks buying gold where previously they have been sellers, it's pretty difficult to take a negative view on the gold price over the next 12 to 18 months. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Barclays on gold: "We retain a positive outlook for prices"

U.S. gold futures fell to $1722 per ounce last week to a six-week low but has climbed on Monday to $1725 in electronic trading. Barclays Research remains firmly bullish on gold.

Gold prices slipped on profit taking amid stronger dollar and reduction in risk appetite with equity markets also weakening, Barclays said. Speculative positions have fallen to a four-week low and although physically backed ETP holdings have eased from record highs, overall metal held in trust remains close to its recently attained peak. Physical demand in India has softened as the local price has risen in turn providing reduced buffer. Market focus this week will shift to the FOMC meeting, which we do not expect to negatively impact gold. 

Given our FX view for the USD to weaken against the EUR over the remainder of 2012, coupled with the physical market's recent responsiveness to lower prices, we retain a positive outlook for prices. Price forecast: Q4 12: $1810/oz; 2012 annual average: $1691/oz. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Billionaire: Gold is "the largest part of my portfolio"

Canaccord's Global Resource Conference happening in Miami at the moment featured a lengthy lunchtime chat with billionaire investor Frank Giustra, Lionsgate founder where he said "he doesn't want to sound apocalyptic," but probably ended up scaring the bejezus out of the audience anyway.

In 2002 Giustra wrote a book called "A Tarnished Dollar Will Put the Shine on Gold." That was back when gold was trading below $300 and quantitative easing wasn't even a glint in Ben Bernanke's eye.

A decade later he's sticking to his guns: "I don't know when and I don't know how high. But gold is going a lot higher.

"Gold is the bubble of all bubbles. It's the mother of all bubbles. It's the bubble people will go to when they've exhausted all other bubbles.

"Here's why: It is moveable. It is easily transferable across borders in times of crisis. It's a currency. It's liquid. It's easily tradeable.

"I'm a fan of all hard assets, but particularly gold. It's the largest part of my portfolio and it will continue to be until this cycle is over. ...

"It's the beginning of the end for the U.S. dollar. I don't want to sound apocalyptic, but how else does this end? You have to be on the right side of this trade." 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Gold Bullion imports by India set to rise

Gold imports by India, the world's largest buyer, are set to climb for the first time in six quarters as a decline in domestic bullion prices stokes jewelry and investment demand ahead of major festivals. 

Overseas purchases may jump to as much as 200 metric tons this quarter, said Bachhraj Bamalwa, chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. That compares with the 157 tons in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to World Gold Council data. ...

A rebound in Indian imports may help sustain an 11 percent rally in global prices, headed for a 12th consecutive year of gains. Bullion in India has fallen about 3 percent since climbing to a record last month after the rupee posted the biggest monthly gain against the dollar since January. 

"The appreciation in the rupee has caused the gold price to correct from the record levels and this correction is seen as an opportunity by many to get into gold," said Chirag Mehta, a fund manager at Quantum Asset Management Co. "With the festival season and marriage season starting now, demand will gain further momentum." ...

"India should be a better buyer over the next two weeks from a seasonal perspective, but this remains highly contingent on the behavior of the rupee gold price," said Edel Tully, an analyst at UBS AG in London. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

China buying up Australia's Gold Bullion exports

 Gold has soared past coal as Australia's second most valuable physical export to China, with sales up a whopping 900% for the first eight months of the year, bringing in $4.1 billion. 

Chinese buyers are hoarding the precious metal amid a slowing economy, property-buying restrictions and uncertain financial markets as its central bank increases its holdings.

The unprecedented jump in gold sales, along with continued acceleration of export revenues for other commodities led by coal -- up 80% to $4bn -- caused total exports to China to rise by 10.7% for the year to August, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics figures.

Shipments of Australia's biggest export, iron ore, were up 20% for the same period but the total value of $26.9bn was down 5% compared to last year, because of the mid-year price slump.

China's foreign currency reserves of gold are low and its move to build them up will provide an important base demand for gold, analysts said. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Gold to average $2,000 in 2013, CIBC World Markets predicts

CIBC World Markets is turning more bullish on gold and silver and suggests it's nearly time for investors to pounce on the sector to capture a seasonal bounce.

CIBC analysts, including Barry Cooper and Alec Kodatsky, believe that the further quantitative easing measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve is setting the stage for a continuation in the gold rally that subsided in mid-September.

"QE1 and QE2 were the drivers for gold price increases in the order of $20 to $30 (U.S.) per month," the analysts wrote in a research note. "We expect that QE3 will offer something between these figures, although on a percentage basis the moves will not be as significant due to the higher gold price." ...

For 2013, CIBC kept its forecasts unchanged, expecting gold will average $2,000 an ounce and silver $35 an ounce. But it now sees gold rising to an average of $2,200 for 2014 and silver to $38.

"The figures represent our view that prices are underpinned by the rising cost of supply, plus strong demand coming from both investor interest and central bank buying," they said. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Eurozone crisis will keep driving gold even if inflation stays in check

 "Two percent inflation is no spur to stocking up on gold bars," notes Robin Bromby at The Australian newspaper, citing recent signs that rising prices appear to be in check -- that is, if you believe the official government calculations.

Never mind inflation, though. Other drivers for gold remain. Bromby cites Julian Jessop of Capital Economics, who thinks that catalyst will be the eurozone crisis.

"We suspect that further gains for gold will require a new catalyst as the US dollar recovers more ground and inflation expectations drop back," he says in his latest note.

But that catalyst is close: a renewed escalation in the eurozone crisis and a revival of safe-haven demand.

The note neatly coincides with a warning this week from financier George Soros that if the European crisis continued it could lead to what he called a "lasting depression."

Capital's Jessop is not quite so apocalyptic, but raises again the prospect of Greece abandoning the euro. Greek bond yields are still more than 17 percent. There is also the looming "fiscal cliff" in the US with congress needing to act to prevent spending cuts and tax increases knee-capping the US economy.

In view of all this, Jessop says he remains comfortable with his forecast of gold around $US2000/oz in coming months.

Meanwhile, Sumit Roy of Hard Assets Investor thinks dollar weakness will come to the fore to give gold a boost:

Lingering concerns about the eurozone have kept pressure on the euro currency, and thus provided some support for the U.S. dollar. But in our view, the dollar may be ready to make a significant push lower as market sentiment improves and risk appetite increases. 

Ironically, the recent improvement in the U.S. economic data is bearish for the U.S. dollar, for the currency tends to depreciate during periods of economic optimism, as investors shift their assets from the safe haven of the dollar toward riskier currencies. 

Bottom Line: Gold and silver are in a shallow correction due to a lack of bullish catalysts, but a potential move below the 78.5 level on the Dollar Index would mark a major breakdown for the U.S. currency, and would be extremely bullish for gold and silver. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Saxo Bank sees gold breaking record high in December

Gold has potential to break all time high of $1,921 an ounce during December this year, according to Saxo Bank, a Danish investment bank. ...

"All in all we continue to see further upside potential for gold and to a lesser degree silver as reduced demand from industrial users increases the pressure on financial investors to keep the supply surplus down," the Copenhagen-based bank added.

With the open ended nature of quantitative easing, part three, we see the potential for gold reaching the 2011 high at $1,921/oz during December following an initial period of consolidating as $1,800 offers strong resistance. Into 2013 the rally may eventually take us up and above the physiological barrier of $2,000 before reaching a technical target of $2,075," they noted.

"The absolute line in the sand below is now $1,500, but we expect technical support at the 200-day moving average, currently at $1,659, will hold off any downside attempts," Saxo Bank concluded. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Slow economic growth ... has been the primary driver of gold for the past decade"

This summer bore witness to a rather tedious, politicized discussion about the resurrection of the gold standard. But one can argue now that the idea of a gold standard is outdated. Why? The reason is simple: gold, over the past ten years, has already handily and beautifully served its balancing function to the end of growth and the manic attempt of governments to fight industrial decline.

Moreover, "debate" of the kind seen recently between high profile investors such as Warren Buffet and Ray Dalio further illustrates that the discussion of gold remains trapped in identity politics. It is as though mere association with gold confers all sorts of meaning. But none of this actually pertains to gold's new role, here in the 'era of no growth.'

Interestingly, Paul Krugman has done some of the best (and politics-free) commentary on gold in the past year; I highlighted his views in last Autumn's essay 'Gold and Economic Decline.' I remain in agreement that the poor prospect for economic growth, rather than inflation from 'money-printing', has been the primary driver of gold for the past decade. Gold has, accordingly, outperformed nearly every other asset -- especially stocks and real estate -- and for good reason. Krugman wrote:

For this is essentially a "real" story about gold, in which the price has risen because expected returns on other investments have fallen; it is not, repeat not, a story about inflation expectations. Not only are surging gold prices not a sign of severe inflation just around the corner, they're actually the result of a persistently depressed economy stuck in a liquidity trap -- an economy that basically faces the threat of Japanese-style deflation, not Weimar-style inflation.

While many participants continue to use gold as a call option on future inflation risk -- and from a resource and food standpoint, there is substantial inflation risk -- the launch of QE3 more pointedly confirms the failure of Western economies to produce growth. It's for this reason that gold should prove to be more sensitive to reflationary policy than industrial commodities over the next year. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

"We'll see $2,300 gold by January 2014," Casey Research predicts

While many of us at Casey Research don't like making price predictions, and certainly ones accompanied by a specific date, it's hard to ignore the correlation between the US monetary base and the gold price.

That correlation says we'll see $2,300 gold by January 2014.

There are plenty of long-term charts that show a connection between gold and various other forms of money (and credit). Most show that one outperforms until the other catches up. But let's zero in on our current circumstances, namely the expansion of the US monetary base since the financial crisis hit in 2008. ...

Continue accumulating gold – or to start without delay. Waiting will have consequences of its own.

People say that there's nothing certain in life except death and taxes. In my view, $2,300 gold is a close second. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

The best month for gold is heading this way

"Gold dropped 1 percent on Monday, its biggest one-day drop since July, as encouraging U.S. retail sales data prompted funds to reduce their bullish bets in bullion after its recent sharp rally," with the price falling as low as $1,729 before consolidating near $1,735, Reuters reported. However, as Felix Pinhasov reminds investors at Seeking Alpha, October tends to be a tough month for gold (as well as other asset classes), but November has historically been robust. Therefore, the current dip could be a nice buying opportunity:

A correction in the price of gold in October will not be out of the ordinary. In fact, it is probably necessary for the price of gold to correct and thereby attract those who missed the rally of August and September to enter the picture and push prices higher.

A move toward the $1725-$1735 support levels will be a decent entry point for those looking to capitalize on what is gold's best month - November. ... November has been the best month to own gold over the past 12 years, returning over 4 percent on average. ...

Although seasonality is not a definite indicator (the past cannot predict the future), the expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet by roughly $40B per month bodes well for this seasonal scenario. In addition, the conclusion of the presidential race (no matter the winner) has historically been known to remove some market uncertainty and push money into financial assets. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Central banks' expansionary policies will boost Gold Bullion to $2,000

The overwhelming trend in monetary policy -- and I think this is something that's extremely important over the next year or so -- will be expansionary, and increasingly so, and I think increasing in breadth in the sense that you're not even just looking at the Fed," Deutsche Bank metals researcher Daniel Brebner tells Bloomberg in an Oct. 15 interview. 

"You're looking at the [European Central Bank], certainly, and the [People's Bank of China], and I think on that basis you're going to see investors increasingly looking at gold as a way to diversify their portfolio. I think it's underheld at this current point in time, and so I think gold continues to look very attractive. And this is in the context of almost a year of corrections. ... Things are starting to look very interesting." However, Brebner thinks that $2,000 gold could correct, especially before the U.S. election, before reaching $2,000 in the first quarter of 2013.

In a separate interview, Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO) portfolio manager Greg Sharenow told Bloomberg that gold could hit $2,000 in the next six to 12 months. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Investors switching from gold ETFs to physical bullion, Barclays says

Gold holdings in exchange-traded products are growing at a slower pace than in 2004-2009 because some investors may be moving to physical bullion after initial purchases of an exchange-traded fund, according to Barclays Plc. 

Gold holdings in ETPs have increased 9.6 percent this year to a record 2,582.98 metric tons, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They rose 7.9 percent last year and 19 percent in 2010. Growth in gold ETP holdings has exceeded 35 percent from 2004 to 2009, the data show. The following are comments from Cengiz Belentepe, head of industrial and precious metals trading at Barclays. He spoke in an interview Oct. 10: 

"The question is whether the pace of buying has slowed, or whether the people have become a bit more sophisticated in recognizing the costs and liabilities. 

''We've seen instances of people coming in, whose first step is to buy an ETF, second step is to get educated on how the market works, third step -- I'm going to shift this in direct gold purchase and storage, fourth step -- let me allocate this metal into these locations. It's the early step they are all migrating through, expressing the same view but in different ways." 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Five Reasons to Own Gold Bullion

1. The US Dollar loses purchasing power every year. Since 1971 the USD has lost 82% of its value while an ounce of gold bullion, when converted to USD, will purchase as much as or more than it would purchase in 1971. Is there any reason to expect anything different in the next 40 years?

2. Gold bullion is recognized as having value in every country in the world and as such can be converted to the paper currency of any country. Ounces of gold bullion really are liquid assets around the globe.

3. Gold bullion cannot be mass produced by any person or organization, including governments, so its value cannot possibly be diluted by an over supply.

4. You cannot convert Gold ETF shares to physical gold bullion. You purchase Gold ETF shares with paper dollars and you sell Gold ETF shares for paper dollars. In short, the only way out of a Gold ETF is via paper money. You are not diversifying away from paper assets when you invest in a Gold ETF nor do you own gold bullion when you invest in a Gold ETF.

5. You, your family and future generations will never be poor if you own gold bullion and pass it on as part of your legacy. All paper assets eventually become worthless or are replaced by other paper assets that eventually become worthless. Among all of the physical assets, none have the long lasting physical durability of gold bullion. Gold bullion is virtually indestructible and does not deteriorate with age. A one ounce gold coin from the Roman empire still weighs one ounce today. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Gold as a Viable Investment Alternative

Today some 90% of the world’s gold is found in only four countries: South Africa, the former Soviet Union, the United States and Canada. South Africa has dominated world gold production and accounts for about 50% of the total world supply. The former Soviet Union accounts for 32%, the United States for 6%, and Canada for 3%. The rest of the world combined produces about 9%. The total yield, however, has been incredibly small. Unlike other such commodities, because of hoarding and stockpiling, each year’s production is a very small part of the available supply. An estimated 2/3 of all the gold on earth has already been mined. Only about 88,000 tons have been extracted from the earth in all of recorded history. All of this could be formed into one cube 18 yards high. It is this scarcity, along with gold’s beauty, durability, and compactness, that has made gold the ideal standard and store of value.

Perhaps the most amazing feature of gold is its stability as a standard of real value. Although its value may fluctuate, history proves its buying power tends to remain the same. Gold has been the most coveted metal in the world and the single most trusted international medium of exchange for thousands of years. Trade between countries frequently is based on gold value as the most reliable currency. While paper currencies have been devalued, eroded by inflation, and become virtually worthless, gold has maintained its purchasing power. Gold has been the established monetary standard for centuries. During times of inflation, people have turned to gold for profit and protection. Gold, unlike paper currencies or other commodities, has retained its value during both crisis and calm periods throughout the history of civilization.

The primary factors influencing gold prices are anticipated inflation caused by huge U.S. deficits and the diminishing power of world currencies. As people lose confidence in a government’s ability to control inflationary pressures, they turn to gold. While gold prices may fluctuate from day to day in world markets, the long-term demand for this timeless treasure can be expected to continue. The current gold market conditions offer profitable opportunities; take advantage of these opportunities and own gold today.

Richard W. Davey Organization provides consulting services to private wealth managers and financial institutions needing the ability to purchase physical precious metals as they would a stock or bond through their existing order entry platform. Each order is bid out to 14 institutional dealers to provide clients with the best price execution. Finally, each fully allocated bar is insured by Lloyds of London and verified by a Big 4 accounting firm coupled with ongoing customer support. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Gold Bullion equals High Returns

The Tangible Factor:
Many people don’t understand exactly what “buying precious metals” means. For those looking to purchase gold and silver you need not complicate things. If you are in the market to invest in these timeless commodities then take it from the professionals – just buy the real thing.


Stay away from Gold ETF's
ETF’s or Exchange Traded Funds are not real gold. You are only buying shares. This means you are investing in internet one’s and zero’s which hold no physical/tangible presence. If your wealth is tied up in what you cannot see – how can you trust it?

Exactly What “Buying Precious Metals” Means
If you are going to invest your hard-earned money into something, you should be able to see it, touch it, and easily transfer it from one party to another. When you buy gold and silver, you need to buy the real physical items. Forget the stock market for now and focus on what you can trust.

Look to purchase gold and silver bars and coins. These items are real and are a sound investment. When you own the real thing, you then have the power to instantly control the fate of your wealth. When another economic crisis hits, where will your wealth be tied up? Will you scramble to your bank or broker only to find your money has vanished? Take control of your wealth today.

Flexibility
The economy has a façade of being calm at the moment. However, as the end of 2012 approaches there will be many changes that take place here in the USA and elsewhere in the world. Political parties change, wars are waged and businesses still fail.
Being flexible with your wealth means when the economic circumstances of your country are heading south, you need not go with it. You (who had the foresight to buy gold and silver) can easily take your metal money anywhere in the world – and it will still be good.

Paper money, on the other hand, means nothing really. Its value is based on the performance of that respective nation’s economy. The dollar has been through a hurricane in the past few years and sadly, we may only be in the eye of the storm.

A Safe Haven That Only Gets Sweeter
After you transfer your dollars into gold you have instantly help your financial situation in two ways. First, you have transferred your wealth into a more stable form of currency. The dollar may go up or down, but your gold assets are steady like a rock. Second, and most importantly, the value of your gold will grow overtime. Gold has been steadily growing in value for many years and this safe haven know as gold and silver will only get sweeter with time.

Richard W. Davey Organization is a consulting firm which helps wealth managers secure precious metals for their clients. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

"Gold is primed for a breakout," MarketWatch reports

Gold is primed for a breakout. Just a stone's throw away from a record level, gold prices may be ready to break free from the trading range they've been stuck in for months. 

"Concerns about overall global economic health have kept gold in a pretty tight trading range, but this is typical just before some type of breakout, up or down," said Nathan Rowader, portfolio manager of the Forward Commodity Long/Short Strategy Fund. "Right now, the weight of the evidence points toward higher prices." ...

Gold's "return to near $1,800 is a sign that some rationality has returned to the market," said Dawn Bennett, portfolio manager of the Bennett Group of Funds. ...

Bennett doesn't believe the runup from the $1,500 level is purely a response to the U.S. Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative easing. 

"We view the broader picture as the reason to invest in gold," she said, emphasizing that she's not discounting the effect QE has on gold. 

"In 2013, the developed world is going to have to deal with its massive debt problems and policies that have spent the last few years devaluing local currencies," she said. "As this happens, gold will be one of few havens available to investors looking to protect their wealth." 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Credit Suisse raises gold, silver forecasts for 2013, 2014

 Investment bank Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) raised its gold and silver forecasts for both 2013 and 2014 Friday, upping gold's 2013 price forecast 7%, to $1,840 a troy ounce from $1,720/oz, and silver's 13% to $33.10/oz from $29.20/oz.

For 2014, the bank raised its gold forecast 17%, to $1,750/oz from $1,500/oz, and silver's by some 24%, to $31.40/oz from $25.40/oz.

The bank cited three main factors driving the forecast changes. First, it expects that more quantitative easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve is more likely than not. This benefits gold in its capacity as a hedge against currency weakness and inflation, with silver prices tending to track gold price moves.

"The Fed is not finished: QE 3.5 is likely, possibly as soon as December, in the form of ongoing purchases of Treasuries after Operation Twist expires. The Federal Reserve appears prepared to accept the political risks of further balance sheet expansion [and] on that basis, it seems probable that real yields can fall further into negative territory, which should be positive for gold," say the bank's analysts, noting that "a move back in to the $1,830/oz area would simply place [gold] back on the long term trend."

Furthermore, the bank says early next year, the gold market will be highly tuned to any suggestion that one or more of the major ratings agencies might cut the U.S. credit rating if Congress fails to adequately address the various fiscal issues. Although Credit Suisse economists believe deals will be done to avoid the worst effects of the expiry of tax rebates and automatic sequestration of spending, "those deals may well be temporary and deep structural issues will remain unresolved," the bank said.

Richard W. Davey Organization provides consulting services to private wealth managers and financial institutions needing the ability to purchase physical precious metals as they would a stock or bond through their existing order entry platform. Each order is bid out to 14 institutional dealers to provide clients with the best price execution. Finally, each fully allocated bar is insured by Lloyds of London and verified by a Big 4 accounting firm coupled with ongoing customer support. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com

Central Bank Gold Bullion Buying Hits Record

 A new report from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that central banks are buying gold in record volumes. The development is good news for gold investors as it reflects that central banks, which set a country’s monetary policy by making changes to money supply and setting interest rates, have not lost confidence in the metal.

“It is clear that gold’s fundamental properties as a vehicle for capital preservation and a source of liquidity continue to endure. This is evident from the activity of central banks, the ultimate long-term investors, which continue to increase their gold holdings to diversify reserves and protect against reliance on one or more foreign currencies,” Marcus Grubb, managing director of investment at the World Gold Council, said in releasing the council’s Gold Demand Trends report.

Central banks, including those in Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Russia and Ukraine, increased their bullion holdings in the second quarter to 157.5 tonnes — more than double compared to the second quarter of 2011, when the central banking sector bought 66.2 tonnes, and representing 16 percent of total gold demand. It was also the highest level of buying since central banks became net buyers of gold in Q2 2009, according to the report.

While central bank buying is up, global gold demand dropped during the quarter, due mostly to softening investment and jewelry demand in the key gold markets of China and India. Gold demand was 990 tonnes in Q2 compared to 1,065.8 tonnes in the second quarter of 2011 — a 7 percent decline. Although, as the WGC points out, demand for gold was exceptional last year.

Second-quarter investment and jewelry demand in India slipped to 181.3 tonnes compared to 294.5 tonnes in the same period last year. In China, total gold demand was off 7 percent as Chinese investors refrained from buying bullion and jewelry in the face of gold price uncertainty.

In value terms, gold demand has remained stable year on year at US$51.2 billion compared to $51.6 billion in the same period last year. The average quarterly gold price was $1,609.49 per ounce, which is 7 percent higher than the average price in Q2 2011, states the report.

WGC’s Marcus Grubb said in a video clip that the council is bullish on gold considering the global economic uncertainty that continues to persist:

“We expect to see more policy easing in the Eurozone. There is the risk of an exit by Greece and bailouts for Spain and Italy before the end of the year. You’re likely to see possible quantitative easing in the United States because the US economy is not growing fast enough to reduce unemployment significantly, and also you’re likely to see more policy easing in China, as growth slows down, there is latitude for interest rate cuts in China. So we think that will all be positive for the gold price, towards the end of the year.”

Central banks aren’t the only investors turning to bullion in this period of economic turbulence. Mineweb reported that prominent investors George Soros and John Paulson increased their gold holdings this week, with Paulson upping his position in the SPDR Gold Trust by 26 percent in the second quarter and the Soros Fund doubling its holdings in SPDR Gold Trust — the world’s largest gold ETF. Vinik Asset Management and Eton Park Capital, however, sold their shareholdings during the quarter, reported Reuters. 

More information can be found online at http://www.goldbullionadvisors.com